It is the pace of change some people just don't grasp. Check into exonomics. Abundance is coming. Are you ready?
Or you can say were on an exponential and we can still make accurate enough predictions about the future, but this contradicts your claim we can’t project these trends.
Most experts do not think this way. Most experts use linear progressions when dealing with exponential technologies. Solar is coming faster than any expert has predicted.
So, if you want to say “because the trend is exponential we cannot follow any trends” how do we follow the exponential trend?
By being the change, not owning it.
Not “how do we adapt to the exponential trend” how does the exponential trend provide any predictive power if we are discrediting the ability of trends to predict the future.
However to construct the exponential trend (and project it into the future, because what else are trends good for?) you have to rely on historical data.
You can't compare a linear progression to an exponential one.
You suggested bc of trend A past trends no longer predict the future. Thus trend F will happen. I countered with, if past trends no longer predict the future A doesn’t hold either.
You say were on an exponential trend and that this trend will continue into the future, A. I’ve said demand increases to match supply and this trend will continue into the future, E.
Made a graph bc bored.
You suggested we are increasing (I assume technologically) at an exponential rate and thus we could not rely on historical data to predict the future.
Yes, when something doubles at .01 to .02 to .04 its deceptive and mimics a linear trend. But disruption comes in eventually and people can't catch up with it.
Sorry should have explained more earlier but had to run. only point was on the paradox you set up. I suggested looking at historical trends to see if demand matched increasing supply
Apologies, I did not mean to rant like that.
Lol no worries enjoyed reading it & learned about exonomics, 200 characters (?) isn’t enough to convey complex ideas with details.
Tell that to Kodak.
yes, individuals & individual companies will have a difficult time but the most adaptable system I know is the free market, so seems like the best bet when mass change is predicted.
We will become an interplanetary species. 3-d printing will allow open source competition for pennies per pound of raw material. Autonomous vehicles will disrupt many sectors.
on edu depends if we're talking content (yeah will likely or already is free), talking going 2 school (which is really for making connections) likely not free but hope cheaper than now
agree with these, agree education will become cheap (not free though) I'm a maybe on solar & dont think healthcare will be free (medtech advances are crazy expensive).
All knowledge will be free. New knowledge is the only real purpose of schooling. Medical will be done by AI. Lower cost and more accurate.
yes, knowledge is free (maybe already). as it is now, meeting people is another purpose of schooling. who you know is important.
When linear and centralized, change seems impossible. Disruption and democratization from widely used open source platforms is on the rise.
By the way, I agree, linear & centralized is slow & we are likely advancing faster than linear. I do not think the change will be sudden (e.g. singularity) nor impossible to deal with.
Solar will dominate globally within 5 years, in the US within 10. Education and healthcare will be free by the end of the 2030s. Transportation as a service will end car ownership.
