Only problem is it's hard to know how much is list to really account for all that. Ate Satoshi's coins actually available still, or lost? Until they move you can't be sure.
only a long passage of time or a continual increase in price can give you hints. 100 years plus from now there should be a pretty good idea how many are actually out of service forgood
Bitcoins can change hands without changing addresses, that is less common though. There is a couple million bitcoins from way back that is most likely lost forever, and there will be-
they can change hand without changing addresses, but in any numbers that make a huge dent in supply, the receiving party would want the certainty of their own fresh private key.