So SV will win and CSW will have enough power to materialize his threats. Until the next scheduled HF, or before. With a big part of the community splitted, BSV will lost support.
Do you not see any scenario where CSW wins and bitcoin just goes on as bitcoin?
Depends. If CSW materialize some of his threats, that's difficult because it will become just a permissioned coin. But of course, it can win and become Bitcoin de facto in some years.