# The Security Models of the Three Bitcoins

*Here I'm going to be exploring a simple way to measure the projected network securities of the three most popular Bitcoin-related networks, BTC, BCH, and BSV.*

**Method**: *I'm going to look at the 7-day moving averages for the transaction levels and block sizes of each coin from (a little more than) one year ago and compare it to what there is now. I'm also going to determine about how much fee revenue this will yield, along with the predetermined block reward. I'm going to graph the projected levels of each coin, assuming constant prices and average transaction fees. I shall also graph the projected raw fee revenue.*

*By multiplying together the average transaction fee with the number of transactions, I can get fee revenue per block. This is how I will include this variable*

*I chose the specific starting date I did because it was after the chaos of the hard fork between BCH and BSV and things began to establish ATLs based on market sanity. I could not find a better starting point for measuring the dynamic growth of BSV that wasn't more arbitrary than what I selected, I suppose I could have measured it off of a Line of Best Fit, but the proportions here would still be pretty strong and probably wouldn't deviate significantly enough to justify crunching my numbers a second time.*



### Conclusion: 163.77, 291.43

After projecting the growth of the three Bitcoin networks using a constant rate of growth based on this last year's worth of data (unfortunately, BSV has only existed for a year), I found that Bitcoin SV has comparatively been far stronger than the other two assets. After graphing the [Projected Total Block Revenue](https://bico.media/31c8603df6ee0d5ac38df566f4c8c329118b82cf7553770ec831d1eae001db22) and the [Projected Fee Revenue](https://bico.media/bf7189d615c5c2203859d6e254f494214204df92c14b8fc9856becb9beda5e6c), I found that topographically, they are identical, and are both the act of BSV quickly flipping BCH in hashrate, then flipping BTC in less than two decades.

After finishing this study, I compared it to [my previous study](https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/d908pm/a_deep_analysis_on_the_security_model_of_bitcoin/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) where I explore the possible future hashrate of Bitcoin Cash specifically. I made some slight mathematical errors in my last study, but the premise was simple, measuring the adoption rate of BCH (using 'Merchant Mondays') and then deducing a growth trend based on the assumption that 15% of all transactions are merchant adoption related. Surprisingly, my two studies came to fairly close figures for projected ATLs. In this study, 17 years from now, I predicted BCH to have a net block reward of $291.43, and in my last study, I predicted it to be $163.77. The truth may be somewhere in the middle, but either way, this is an order of magnitude less net block reward than what BCH currently has, and it's losing its hashrate faster than it's competitor forks.


## Data:

### Bitcoin Core (BTC)

Avg TX Fee (Today, 7D SMA): $0.867

Price (Today, 7D SMA): $8086


Jan 15, 2019 TXs: 305.8k

Oct 16, 2019 TXs: 321.38k

(275 days) TX Growth: 321.38k/305.8k = 1.051%

Fee Revenue: 0.867 * 321.38k = $278.63k

**Yearly TX Growth: 1.051^(365/275 = 1.327) = 1.0706%**

Jan 15, 2019 Block Sizes: 724.6k

Oct 16, 2019 Block Sizes: 702.1k

(275 days) Block Size Growth: 702.1k/724.6k = 0.969%

**Yearly Block Size Growth: 0.969^1.327 = 0.958%**




### Bitcoin Cash (BCH)

Avg TX Fee (Today, 7D SMA): $0.003

Price (Today, 7D SMA): $220.16


Jan 15, 2019 TXs: 8k

Oct 16, 2019 TXs: 44.49k

(275 days) TX Growth: 44.48k/8k = 5.56%

Fee Revenue: 0.003 * 44.49k = $0.133k

**Yearly TX Growth: 5.56^(1.327) = 10.53%**

Jan 15, 2019 Block Sizes: 26.56k

Oct 16, 2019 Block Sizes: 106.25

(275 days) Block Size Growth: 106.25/26.56 = 4%

**Yearly Block Size Growth: 4^1.327 = 6.7%**





### Bitcoin SV (BSV)

Avg TX Fee (Today, , 7D SMA): $0.001

Price (Today, 7D SMA): $92.86


Jan 15, 2019 TXs: 2.26k

Oct 16, 2019 TXs: 205.91k

(275 days) TX Growth: 205.91/2.26k = 91.11%

Fee Revenue: 0.001 * 205.91,k = $0.206k

**Yearly TX Growth: 91.11^(1.327) = 488.12%**

Jan 15, 2019 Block Sizes: 7.13k

Oct 16, 2019 Block Sizes: 677k

(275 days) Block Size Growth: 677/7.3 = 92.74%

**Yearly Block Size Growth: 92.74^1.327 = 500.14%**





**Sources**: [**Transactions**](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-btc-bch-bsv.html), [**Block Sizes**](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/size-btc-bch-bsv.html), [**Prices**](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/price-btc-bch-bsv.html), [**AVG TX Fees**](https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-bch-bsv.html).



## Progression:

**Assumptions:**

1) There is a halving every four years.

2) The starting block reward is 12.5.

3) The numbers listed under "**Data**" above are accurate and can be represented as a linear trend line for the sake of the argument.


**Format:**

*bR = Block Reward (daily)*

*fR = Fee Revenue (daily)*

*p = Price*

*tG = Transaction Growth*

*aR = All Revenue (daily)*

**(bR × p) + (fR × tG) = aR**


**May 2020, 1 year from now:**

**Note: BSV flips BCH in fee revenue.**

Note: Technically this is 194 days from now, so I have to change the initial math slightly. 194/365 = 0.5315; 1.327^0.5315 = 1.1829. 10.53^0.5315 = 3.495. 488.12^0.5315 = 26.85.

(bR × p) + (fR×tG) = aR/days

**BTC**: (6.25 × 8086) + ($278,630×1.011829) = **$332,463.41/day**

New fR = $281,925.91

**BCH**: (6.25 × 220.16) + ($133 × 1.03496) = **$1513.65/day**

New fR = $137.65

**BSV**: (6.25 × 92.86) + ($206 × 1.2685) = **$841.69/day**

New fR = $261.31


**May 2024, 5 years from now:**

**Note: BSV flips BCH in hashrate.**

(bR × p) + (fR×tG) = aR/days

**BTC**: (3.125 × 8086) + ($281,925.91 ×1.01105) = **$310,309.94/day**

New fR = $285,041.19

**BCH**: (3.125 × 220.16) + ($137.65 × 1.1053) = **$840.14/day**

New fR = $152.14

**BSV**: (3.125 × 92.86) + ($261.31 × 4.8812) = **$1,565.69/day**

New fR = $1,275.51


**May 2028, 9 years from now:**


**Note: BSV has an order of magnitude more hashrate than BCH.**

(bR × p) + (fR×tG) = aR/days

**BTC**: (1.5625 × 8086) + ($285,041.19 ×1.01105) = **$300,825.27/day**

New fR = $288,190.895

**BCH**: (1.5625 × 220.16) + ($152.14 × 1.1053) = **$512.16/day**

New fR = $168.16

**BSV**: (1.5625 × 92.86) + ($1,275.51 × 4.8812) = **$6,371.11/day**

New fR = $6,226.01

**May 2032, 13 years from now:**

(bR × p) + (fR×tG) = aR/days

**BTC**: (0.78125 × 8086) + ($288,190.895 ×1.01105) = **$297,692.59/day**

New fR = $291,375.4

**BCH**: (0.78125 × 220.16) + ($168.16 × 1.1053) = **$357.86/day**

New fR = $185.867

**BSV**: (0.78125 × 92.86) + ($6,226.01 × 4.8812) = **$30,462.94/day**

New fR = $30,390.4

**May 2036, 17 years from now:**

(bR × p) + (fR×tG) = aR/days

**BTC**: (0.390625 × 8086) + ($291,375.4 ×1.01105) = **$297,753.69/day**

New fR = $294,595.09

**BCH**: (0.390625 × 220.16) + ($185.867 × 1.1053) = **$291.43/day**

New fR = $205.43

**BSV**: (0.390625 × 92.86) + ($30,390.4 × 4.8812) = **$148,377.89/day**

New fR = $148,341.62

**May 2040, 21 years from now:**

**Note: BSV flips BTC in hashrate and fee revenue**

(bR × p) + (fR×tG) = aR/days

**BTC**: (0.1953125 × 8086) + ($294,595.09 ×1.01105) = **$299,429.66/day**

New fR = $297,850.36

**BCH**: (0.1953125 × 220.16) + ($205.43 × 1.1053) = **$270.06/day**

New fR = $227.06

**BSV**: (0.1953125 × 92.86) + ($148,341.62 × 4.8812) = **$724,103.25/day**

New fR = $724,085.12