There is only one way for Bitcoin to get out of the bear market: becoming more used as a payment system. This however is no longer possible in the known categories of onchain transaction volume, but exclusively by the Lightning Network, a method to process transactions in offchain channels. From a technical point of view, a lightning transaction is the same as a Bitcoin transactions: It transfers access to Bitcoin, the store of value, from one person to another. However, the behavior of a lightning transaction is fundamental different than that of a Bitcoin transactions in its fundamental configuration of economic interaction, user experience, regulatorical handling and accumulation of network effects. 6/8
Technically, the road of SegWit and Lightning is conservative: It guarantees the stability of the decentral network of nodes, which constitutes Bitcoin technologically, while building an optional infrastructure which allows high scaling and growth of use. Seen from the side of the ecosystem, Lightning demands the maximum will to self-disrupt. It transforms every economic interactions made with Bitcoin in a way, whose consequences are unpredictable for users, companies and regulators. 7/8
The result is, that Lightning made Bitcoin to an experiment with an unknown outcome. It could happen, that Lightning does what it is promised to do and reinforced the needed growth. But it could also happen that Lightning transforms the entire Bitcoin ecosystem in a failed experiment of technocracy. 8/8
