Yeah, they are definitely getting prepared to try and whether the storm. The behavior controls are just going to get tighter and tighter. Surveillance is insane.
I don't think so. Most of the the younger people here don't buy the Japanese Devil garbage. That is one area where the government is very out of touch. Big generation gap.
Some people think they will just declare marital law, etc. but if the economy really is in the toilet I doubt they will be able to contain a mass incident like they did with Tiananmen.
closer they get to what they call a "mass incident." /2
Yeah, I just don't see them as competent managers. They are just problem - reaction - solution. Same as every other government. They have bottomless pockets, but the more they use them the /1
There's just not much potential for economic development in those regions, they have historically been very poor for a reason. No seaports, no good farmland, very isolated and peculiar climates
You'd have to pay most Han a pretty penny to voluntarily relocate to Tibet or Xinjiang even lower class people don't want to go there. The infrastructure pales in comparison to the coast.
Sure, but if you go against the economic gradient too much there you just have yourself another money pit.
A federation of provinces would be awesome. Most of the bigger provinces have (sometimes brief) histories of being their own sovereign entities anyway. They have experience =)
Yeah, the problem is incentivizing migration to those areas is a tricky business. I know a guy who took a subsidy to work in Tibet and went bankrupt. The quality of life in those places is shit.
estate makes them feel rich. If the old nest egg gets taken out what happens next is not going to be pretty./2
My sense is that the middle class will be just fine until something happens to the housing market. Everyone is cash poor and lives in sub-par conditions, but the equity they have in real /1
Yeah I saw that. Will be interesting to see if that kind of social engineering actually works.
They are trying to brainwash the Uyghurs and Tibetans to feel the same love of the state as the majority ethnicity. Essentially trying to make them easier to govern when the shit hits the fan.
are willing to put up with as their quality of life gradually goes down. Could take a generation. /2
My guess is it ends like it usually has in history: with inflation, but who knows. They could keep a lid on this circus for quite a while. It all depends on how much shit the middle class here/1
The state here has already decided that it should spend billions trying to control culturally alien populations like in Tibet and Xinjiang. It is a money pit that will just grow.
Yeah, honestly I think it will be a losing proposition for the Chinese as well. It's just more state planning and they have to foot all the costs of governance over a mostly ungovernable people.
I think we will see either transition to a two party state or Deng's Reform 2.0 in our lifetime. The current model is interesting but unsustainable. The economy is a joke. Tons of makework.
Yep, Colonialism with Chinese Characteristics. =)
I honestly don't know that much about the shadow banking system here. It is not something I have the opportunity to interact with much. =)
They have to actually invent new markets for real growth to occur and I don't see that happening. Right now there is malinvestment all over the place, tons of unoccupied buildings...
Meh, I don't think the party can keep it up. They are up against the economic calculation problem and growth is slowing tremendously. Already negative if you take into account real inflation.
The problem has mostly been in the cities. The lack of any legal due process means that if you get shafted there is no recourse. Couple that with corrupt police and you can see why trust is low.
China used to be much higher trust before the revolution screwed everyone over. Out in the country everyone knew each other and most people just left their doors open.
